Kerry's election chances depend on the success of the Department of Homeland Security

Let's think the un-thinkable for a moment.  What if there is another terrorist attack here in America?  When would it happen?  And what would the terrorists hope to achieve?



First we need to consider why terrorists might launch another attack and then we need to think about whether they would hope to affect the outcome in favor of Bush or Kerry.



One of the objectives of terrorism is to reveal the "true" repressive character of the state thus winning further support for the terrorists' cause.  If we had just acted in Afghanistan, and then concentrated on the remains of al-Qaeda, then we might be winning the war on terror today.  But instead the Bush administration over-reacted, and, in Iraq and Guantanamo and Abu Gharib and all the rest, provided a recruiting boondoggle of which Osama could only dream.



America's standing in the world has changed dramatically since 9/11.  For the sake or argument let's assume that at the current moment America is pretty much reviled around the world.  Our former allies are fearful of us and don't trust us.  Even those that still stand by us don't really believe that we are reliable partners.  All of this is new.  And it is a change since George W. Bush was inaugurated.  Indeed, it just might be related to the leadership provided by the Bush Administration.



Would the election of the liberal, multilateralist, French-speaking John Kerry change all this, and restore a Kennedyesque glow to America's image in the world?  Probably not.  Something deeper has changed, and even if America reverts to its previous form, attitudes toward America will not easily change back.  Probably the best that can be hoped that Kerry can remind the rest of the world the old America still exists.  But even that would open the door and offer the faint hope that the world, even the Arab and Muslim world, would respond.



Which is why Osama bin Laden ought to be backing George Bush.  Much like Republicans who covertly support Ralph Nader because he might take votes from John Kerry, al-Qaeda terrorists will back Bush because he's their best recruiter.



Can terrorists really do anything to affect the outcome of an American presidential election?  Of course they can.  A major terrorist attack in America before the election almost certainly would not swing voters to the anti-war opposition as did the Madrid bombing.  In survey after survey, the handling the war on terror is the one area in which American voters favor Bush over Kerry.  A carefully timed attack would most likely trigger a wave of patriotic solidarity with George Bush.



Ironically, while Bush's election chances may depend on a new attack by al-Qaeda, Kerry's election chances may depend on the ability of Bush's Department of Homeland Security to prevent it.



Guardian (London): Fortress America, George Bush's re-election hopes may well hang on al-Qaida's ruthless ingenuity